Foster (603806): New material for photovoltaic film faucet is about to be released

Foster (603806): New material for photovoltaic film faucet is about to be released
Recommendation logic: The company’s global leader in photovoltaic film is stable. Since 2013, the market share has been stable at about 50%.In the next few years, the company’s photovoltaic film business will also benefit from: (1) the beginning of the photovoltaic parity era, increased installed growth and stable cash flow, and improved industry cash flow; (2) product structure upgrades brought by the increased penetration of double-sided modules.Expected 2019?The sales volume in 2021 will be 72.912 million, 90.272 million and 105.152 million square meters.At the same time, the company is actively expanding other membrane products horizontally, and it is expected to become a platform-based membrane company in the future, opening up growth space. The overseas market for photovoltaics has ushered in both local and structural improvements: After 18 years of experience of the “May 31st” New Deal, the prices of photovoltaic industry chain products have fallen rapidly, declining by about 25% on average, and the cost of electricity has dropped by 10%.15%, the cost has been prominent in many countries and regions. Based on this, overseas reserve projects are started ahead of schedule and reorganized. Photovoltaic power generation is more conducive to competition and has a positive impact on the long-term energy structure adjustment.The new overseas installed capacity in 2018 was 59GW, an annual increase of 25%, accounting for 60% of global photovoltaic installed capacity, and the importance of the overseas market has increased.At the same time, the concentration of the PV module export market continued to decrease, with a CR5 of 67 in 2017.1%, 18 years CR5 is 53%.The situation of “decentralization” and “flowering everywhere”, mainly in South America, Central and Northeast Africa, continues to develop. The company’s photovoltaic film cost advantage is obvious, and the double-sided module promotes the upgrade of the product structure: as of the end of 2018, three domestic companies, Foster, Swift, and Haiyou New Materials, respectively accounted for 49 in the global EVA film market.4%, 11.4%, 8.2%, has formed a market pattern of oligopoly.Due to the strength of the company’s production scale, there are scale effects in terms of raw material procurement and cost control, so the company’s gross profit margin has reduced the industry level.We expect that through the large-scale application of double-glass modules in the future, the company’s product structure will continue to improve, and the sales ratio of high-value white EVA film and POE film will increase, thereby driving the company’s gross profit margin to stabilize and recover. Orderly advancement of photosensitive dry film, large import substitution space: Due to high technological content, large equipment investment, 杭州夜网论坛 high market barriers, significant scale effects, and high industry concentration, photosensitive dry film as the upstream material of PCB, Changxing Chemical, Asahi Kasei, HitachiInto the three manufacturers accounted for more than 80% of the global market share, the previous self-sufficiency rate was much lower than 10%.Photosensitive dry film is currently the company’s major new material development, the dispersion continues to grow rapidly, only 1.59 million square meters sold in 2017, an increase of 386 in 2018.4% to 7.75 million square meters, with H1 sales of 6 million square meters in 2019+.With the company’s gradual expansion of the photosensitive dry film production project in 2020, the company is expected to reach 200 million square meters of photosensitive dry film expansion by 2020, at which time the revenue and profit of photosensitive dry film will further increase. Earnings forecasts and investment advice.The EPS for 2019-2021 is expected to be 1.45 yuan, 1.75 yuan, 2.21 yuan, corresponding estimates are 29X, 24X, 19X.The company is an absolute leader in photovoltaic film. At the same time, it actively expands and expands new film varieties to limit the market space of a single downstream industry. It covers for the first time and gives an “overweight” rating. Risk warning: New photovoltaic installations in 2020 may not meet the expected risks, the company ‘s new product expansion may not meet the expected risks, and the company ‘s capacity expansion may not meet the expected risks.