Sany Heavy Industry (600031): 2020 Outlook Optimistic Market Share and Profitability Aim to Maintain Growth
Recent situation of the company We recently invited Sany Heavy Industry to participate in the 2019 CICC Strategy Conference. The company also exchanged views on the recent operating situation and future development prospects. The main contents are as follows.
Commentary predicts that the demand for excavators will increase steadily in 2020, and the company’s growth rate will continue to lead the industry.
The company believes that the sales growth of the excavator industry is expected to reach about 10% in 2020. The company’s sales growth rate is expected to exceed the industry’s 10ppt. The company’s market share in the third quarter is about 26?
27%, gradually increasing by 3?
4ppt, this trend is expected to continue in 2020.
The increase in industry demand is mainly due to the decline of the industry cycle change, the continued replacement of the replacement demand, and the increase in the proportion of small mining sales under the labor replacement trend.
The company also expects that the gross profit margin of the excavator business segment will stabilize at around 36%.
Truck crane sales expected to grow by 10 per year in 2020?
The sales volume of truck cranes in the third quarter did not increase, mainly due to the higher base of the 2H18 industry. The company expects that the sales growth rate of the 4Q19 industry will increase sequentially, and the industry sales growth rate will reach 10 in 2020.
From the perspective of gross profit margin, the company’s truck crane business currently has a gross profit margin of only about 25%, compared with a historical high of 37% and there is still room for further improvement.
It is expected that concrete machinery will continue to grow in 2020, and the growth rate of 无锡桑拿网 pumping products will accelerate.
The company’s global market share of concrete machinery has reached about 60%, and has gained global leading competitiveness.
The company expects concrete machinery to maintain steady growth in 2020, with pump truck sales increasing the most, concrete mixer trucks second, and concrete mixing stations to grow the most robustly.
Overseas export business continued to grow rapidly.
The company expects that overseas exports (excluding Germany’s Putzmeister) are expected to achieve a growth rate of about 40% this year, of which Europe’s growth rate will reach about 80%, while Indonesia is the largest single export market, and revenue in 2019 is expected to exceed 200,000Yuan.
The Indian market is growing by about 20% this year, which is an improvement over previous years, but the future 西安桑拿 development potential is huge.
The company plans to further strengthen channel construction overseas.
Actively promote the independence of core components.
The company currently includes 70 in the four-wheel belt, the cab, and the mechanical structure.
80% of parts and components have been autonomous. The company stated that it will continue to promote the localization of core parts such as hydraulic parts and engines in the future.
It is recommended to maintain the company’s profit forecast and “Outperform” rating.
The company currently expects to correspond to 10 / 9x P / E in 2019/20.
We maintain our target price of 18.
00 yuan, corresponding to 13/11 times P / E in 2019/20, which has 29% upside compared to the current one.
Demand from risk industries was lower than expected.