Double Star New Material (002585): Performance elasticity in terms of polyester film boom
Investment Highlights 2018 Annual Report Release: The company announced 2018 annual revenue38.
5.7 billion, an annual increase of 27.
6%; deduct non-net profit 2.
6 million U.S. dollars, with an average annual increase of more than 10 times; 2018 volume and price are rising, the industry boom cycle is up-the company’s polyester film sales volume is 329,560 tons, an increase of 19% year-on-year; the output is 347,730 tons, an increase of 12.
77%; ending inventory is 7.
2 First, grow by 1 each year.
8 ;;-In 2018, according to public data, the estimated price of BOPET12u film was 12,256 yuan / ton, which was a marked increase from the average price of 9,237 yuan / ton in 2017; the latest price in April was about 10,900 yuan / ton;Excluding the impact of changes in inventory and raw material prices, gross profit per ton estimated for Q1-Q4 2018 was 1,532.
6; -Total net profit is lower than our expectation, mainly due to the unexpected change in the price of Bopet film in the fourth quarter, which affects the fourth quarter net profit; optical film and other functional filmsThe upper limit is 660 million tons / ton, and the increase is expected to decrease; the second phase of an optical film project with an annual output of 20 million square meters is still in progress. The investment quota is 19.
6 ppm, but the progress has improved from the amount of expenditure, the current progress is 48.
44%-Solar film: Company 3 inserts solar back film affected by the industry boom, and its profit has been reduced from 87.23 million in 2017 to 45 million.At 80.
5%, the operating rate is at a high level in recent years, but lower than our forecast may reach 90%; according 无锡夜网 to news reports, Fujian Baihong High-tech Materials Industry Co., Ltd. plans to invest about 2.
300 million US dollars, Baihong Industry will establish 25 in the next 3 years.
5 years / year polyester film production line; but the effect of this investment is expected to be after 2021. Generally, the capacity and operating rate in 2019 will still remain relatively high, mainly based on the downstream demand growth rate; earnings forecasts and expectations due to industry prosperityBelow our expectation, we lowered the company’s profit forecast and expect the net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company to be 2 in 2019-2020.
7.5 billion, 2.
7.1 billion yuan.
EPS are 0.
24 yuan, 0.
The corresponding PEs are 27.
8 and 28.
1x; PB is 0.
93. Considering that the industry’s prosperity is still expected in 2019, PE is estimated to be slightly higher, but PB is estimated to be in the expected position. Maintain Buy rating.